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Picksmart - Work In Progress

2007-10-01T00:39:00.000+08:00

I'm trying to revamp the blog to add in more in depth analysis of companies that I am looking out for. At the moment valuations are rather high and despite some recent strength in the STI and some China plays, I am still trying hard to search for undervalued gems to hold amidst all the volatility.

Some counters of interest. I've not taken the time and diligence to run through and assess these companies, but I like their business and would like to do an in depth analysis of some of these companies.

Notably - China Education Ltd

Just a preliminary assessment: this company runs a university in Tianjin and is partly owned by Raffles Education. I like the business because China's development would require students to carry on fueling the economy and driving growth.

Enrollment rates have increased and a shift towards concentrating on offering university degree courses rather than diploma courses would lead to increase profit margins.

Target enrollment for the current academic year is 6500 up from 5800 as reported in Mar 07 FYE report. I've not dived into the assessment of the current intake and facilities etc. But trailing PE is rather high at 40+x FY07.

Hope to release more informative research on the list of companies below, and I hope that more people will actively contribute to my maiden try at starting picksmart.

1. CNA

2. Hyflux

3. Contel

4. Beauty China

5. Super Coffee Mix

6. Food Empire

7. Koda

8. China Education

9. Bio Treat

10. Zhong Guo Power Plus

11. Lion Teck Chiang

Selling into Strength

2007-06-13T00:05:00.001+08:00

I've cleared out of all my positions yesterday and today, as the unfolding events around China and US has introduced more uncertainty into the markets. This maybe merely hearsay, but I'm good for cashing out on my earnings.

Reason for this being that as I've noticed already, the STI has been swinging up and up, without a huge enough correction as I expected before it moved back on it's upward ways. This trend maybe a resounding bull to some, but at 3561, it feels like momentum is wearing thin. UOB Kay Hian's technical analysis reports describes a bearish view lacking any further upside, and recommends selling into strength as well. Perhaps a better look can be illustrated here:

From my simplistic point of view, I'd be expecting the index to drop down to the 3,400 mark, where there is some support, breaking this support will require some really drastic news like a fallout in China and US trade relations, or something drastic like an interest rate hike. To be honest, I doubt there will be any near term news of this kind, and a healthy correction is due in the STI. The Dow has come off quite a bit recently because of increasing views that the FED will at least keep rates steady till year end. This is frankly what I've expected, and I'm not sure why it wasn't already priced into expectations. Given the healthy economic growth and M&A activity, it is quite certain that business confidence remains high, and consumer confidence doesn't seem to have come off. This is good news for me, but as all good news are, they entail a paradox. People are afraid that the bouyant economy would be hampered by high interest rates, mainly caused by unabating inflation expectations. Indeed most bulls are expecting economic growth to slow (i.e. the soft landing mentality) enough for inflation expectations to ease off, while allowing the FED some room to cut rates. The FED's stance is achieving a target rate of an estimated 2% or so, and I do see that happening. So all in all, it's still a good situation to be long equities in my own humble opinion (I'm very keen on having people nitpick at my commentaries, as I am no guru) and maintaining rates the way they are won't significantly depress the economy into a grinding halt.

What is evident however, is the strengthening dollar against the SGD or most other Asian Currencies at the moment. I think it's really a no brainer as yields temporarily increase, to go short on the dollar, as I don't really see how this can be a sustained appreciation in the dollar at least in 1-2 years time. European central banks may begin cutting rates further down the road which may weaken vis-a-vis the dollar however, giving the dollar some support. I'm not a forex expert, and it really is a beast of its own, but there are some trends I'd like to exploit.

End of the day, as the cycle unfolds, I hope I'd still be able to live to tell a tale of how we've managed to ride the bull by its horns, and still come out unscathed. For now, cash in hand is always a good thing, and I wish better luck to all those still trading the market.

Portfolio Update: 10 June 07 Sunday

2007-06-10T13:17:00.000+08:00

Sorry for not updating regularly, was preoccupied with my work these days...

holdings and updates on my trades and stock picks:

I've had some traumatic experience trading short term, and as you can see most holdings are pennies, and which i like very much to dabble in. Keep positions liquid though. Despite the relative strength of pennies compared to the mainboard shares recently, I'm far too convinced that the resilience is founded from large speculation rather than fundamentals.

Looking to take profit on the holdings that I've had, as I feel that the trend is getting choppier and lesser stimulus for a higher upswing. Still bullish on Contel, SSH and Radiance as earnings season draws nearer, think solid earnings will propel them higher.

Winners:
frontline at 17.5 and 17 cents - friday close 19

Contel @ 18 - friday close 19 (sold out at 19, waiting for it to slide down to 18 again)

Radiance @ 14.5 / 14 - friday close @ 17

Japan Land @ 9 / 9.5 cents - friday close 10

SSH @ 31.5 (long time holding) and 26 and 28 cents - friday close 34 cents

China Sun @ 66.5 cents - friday close 71.5 sold realised profit

Nucleus @ 14 /14.5 - sold out at 15 realised >>> watch for insider trading activity, as CEO has been buying up this counter at 14,14.5,15 and Credit Suisse is also getting in on the act at 14-14.5 cents. Good support if this comes back down to reasonable levels.

Losers:
Capitaland @ 8.10 - stopped out at 8.00; realised loss.

Note: Capitaland - my previous post i mentioned a range trade at these levels, which does not seem like a good idea any more, I'm predicting on more push, since friday's rally in the US may trigger an upturn in the STI.

But cap land is looking like it's trending lower since breaking the 8 dollar support, it went back to 7.90 and went up again before coming back down. One last speculative trade at 7.90 maybe worthwhile considering, but I wouldn't venture taking that risk.

Monday's trades

2007-05-28T01:55:00.000+08:00

Plan to cut out of my Capitaland position, release of news on converts issuance may hamper the stock, but more importantly, stock has remained weak over the 8.5 8.10 mark, must take a close look at the going ons for tmrw.

Accumulating more of Frontline at 17 cents tmrw, I like this stock and am confident it will break through its resistence of 18 cents, if not still a possibility of cutting out at 16.5.

Contel - I like this stock a lot, it is also looking very cheap at 18 cents, but currently last done at 18.5 cents. Will be trying to accumulate on this.

Overall sentiment:

I've been very hesistant to put a lot of plays into long term buys. I am just trying to stay liquid and making really short term plays at the moment, as we have seen some volatility in the STI at this 3450 to 3550 level.

I am quite afraid actually of this market, and will be ready to stop out of most positions I have. But there are a few gems that I'd like to hold on to. Still waiting to see any more movement on China Sun.

I guess stick to businesses that you understand and feel will be doing well.

Trades done today

2007-05-24T22:20:00.000+08:00

Frontline - bought 17.5 cents
Really lucky to get this in, hoping to get in more but I'm contented with this

China Sun - dropped back down to 66.5 cents, bought in at that level, US market doing very well currently, which is good news for me, hope tomorrow is bright.

Capitaland - bought in more at 8.10 cents, short term trade, looking to exit tomorrow

All the best bulls!

Watchlist:

1. Japan Land queue @ 8.5 cents

2. Contel buying in at 17.5 cents

3. Radiance - looking to go in on further dips hopefully 13.5 cents

Today's Trades

2007-05-23T09:41:00.000+08:00

Capitaland - 8.15 bought
Japan Land - 0.085 queue
Frontline - 0.18 queue stop loss 17 cents

Only bought in capitaland due to weakness around the 8.10 8.15 range, looking to accumulate at these regions and trade it on the upswing.

STI - Technical Analysis UOB Kay Hian

2007-05-23T08:46:00.000+08:00

Taken from UOB Kay Hian technical analysis research publication.

Key points to note:

RSI divergence, heading into resistence at the 3450-3550 range, breakout would head to 3600 but the analyst feels it's less likely compared to a impending correction. Advises taking profits.

My view:

Key US data coming out on consumer spending, the idea is that while we are seeing signs of inflation cooling off, positive signs in strong M&A activity, there is a largely muted tone because the dow has run up quite a bit, and is near 2000 highs and could face stiff resistence in the short term. Economy wise, consumer spending is a key to the US, and if this indicator shows weakness, it could cause quite an impact on the US markets, and in turn the local bourse. This news is out tmrw US time, and it would be good to take note.

Meanwhile, keep your holdings to a minimal, and ready for exit. I just can't wait for the correction to come! Sorry bulls...

Smart Money Play to Maximise your CPF - SGS Bonds

2007-05-20T14:13:00.000+08:00

This is no advertorial. I'm not pushing products, all I'm doing is introducing to you a concept of maximising your risk free rate. Think about how much the CPF board is giving you with your madatory contributions.

2.5% that's not too bad if you compare against the short term / mid term rates that the banks are offering, but it's still a miserly 2.5% per annum, and you can use your CPF monies to buy other things like unit trusts and stocks to enhance those returns.

These things come with risks, and we all know that selecting a good unit trust is difficult. Not many really perform better than your personal benchmark.

I'm talking about SGS bonds, a risk free alternative to that 2.5%... Consider your CPF monies as your retirement fund. How many years do you have with the savings pot for it to grow? Say 20 to 25 years left before you reach 55? or longer? 30 years to 62?

Why not consider a long term bond, yielding more than 2.5%? It is long term but liquid. In the sense that you can sell it when you want to, you don't have to hold on to it. If you think that interest rates are falling some time soon, and bonds will appreciate in value why not consider the longer term bonds that have greater sensitivities to interest rate movements?

3 Simple reasons why you should consider it:

1. the 20 yr bond maturing 2027 is yielding 3.19% at the moment and capital appreciation aside, this is definitely more than the 2.5% that you are getting. It is plain and simple, why not just buy a safe Singapore Govt Bond?

2. It is not true that you have to hold it for the full 20 years! Think of it this way, there is a secondary market for these SGS bonds and you can sell it off if you've earned enough from interest and capital appreciation. There are agents like www.fundsupermart.com where you can trade your SGS bond.

3. If you are expecting interest rates to fall, like how they are expecting in the US, then the best time to invest in bonds is coming really soon! Think about the right time to make a good move. When the local economy is losing steam, the smart money move is to be conservative and rotate into bonds. If you think that is the time ( and I definitely think that way, and am looking to invest into bonds by early next year), you should keep your mind open to safe bets like these!

If you are worried about the charges, here's a print screen from fundsupermart on their 2027 maturing SGS bond quote:

If you squint and look at the fine prints at the bottom, it states:
0.1% annual custody fee and a initial 0.1% processing fee >>>

*The indicative price is a recently transacted price to give you an estimate. If you select the "Buy at Market Price" option, Fundsupermart will transact for you on the market day that your payment is received (if before 3pm). **The payment that FSM will ask of you will be a buffer above this indicative price to cater to any changes on the transaction day. Refer to FAQ
FSM fees include an initial processing charge of 0.1% and an annual custody charge of 0.1% levied on the coupon payments. The offer price (investor's buying price) displayed on Fundsupermart.com excludes the 0.1% processing fee.

Frontline - Good Earnings, LT BUY

2007-05-19T18:02:00.000+08:00

I am planning to go long on Frontline, but the 18 cents mark will prove to be a strong resistence level. It has tested the 18 cents mark and retraced a couple of times recently, and any strong upside past that level would be good.

I will accumulate this stock depending on monday's opening price. TP 22 cents.

DBS Vickers put target price at 23 cents, Westcomb at 28 cents which is quite a bit of upside for a penny counter.

Frontline has been a stellar performer, and suits my bill as a profit making company and reasonably affordable as well.

Will be doing a more detailed analysis for Frontline soon.

Initial rating : BUY

Pine AgriTech Ltd - It's MOVING!!!!

2007-05-14T09:41:00.000+08:00

Great NEWS This baby of mine is finally moving like it was supposed to, half clutched, but it still moved, and is accelerating fast, I can sell out now at 71 cents, having already made a decent profit today.

Hmmm, this just shows how fickle the market is, but today was a very optimistic day for the bulls, although STI seems to retrace slightly, I'm sticking with Pine for awhile just to see the price action on this counter for the rest of the day.

Sold Capitaland at 8.35 this morning

2007-05-14T09:13:00.000+08:00

I'm reporting my first trading profit on trades I've posted in this blog. And it feels real good. Bought 5 lots of Capitaland at 8.15 on friday, and watched this baby go up. I'm taking profits now since I'm playing on margin, and it's good enough for me to have made a little.

This trade was awesome, just one day swing made me a decent 1k profit...

In this choppy market, think buying in on dips on counters that are particularly volatile is the way to earn some real trading gains around here.

Covered this position and will be monitoring my other position in Pine AgriTech.

STI up 48 points now, and I hope it gets better today :)

ReutersGreenspan sees one-third chance of recession

2007-05-11T21:08:00.000+08:00

Says Southeast Asian Economies to remain resilient in spite of possible recession in the US. Or at least that's what I read it as. Seems like a decent chance of a recession coming this end of the year, and if not end of year, next year odds would increase as well right?

Trading strategy for picksmart - Short Term picks to clear out investments, always have a stop loss and never trade beyong your means!

Reuters
Greenspan sees one-third chance of recession
Friday May 11, 7:27 am ET By Mia Shanley and Kevin Yao

A must read by all viewers of picksmart, headlines from http://finance.yahoo.com

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070511/economy_greenspan.html?.v=3

Exerpt:
He said the impact of any slowdown in the U.S. economy on Southeast Asia would be mitigated by high savings rates and domestic consumption.

"Any slowdown will be somewhat offset," Greenspan said, adding that he saw no repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis due to strengthened central bank foreign currency reserves.
"The chance of '97 happening again is virtually non-existent."

Bought Capitaland @ 8.15

2007-05-11T19:42:00.000+08:00

Managed to get into Capitaland at 8.15 today, put in 5 lots on margin. Looking to get out with any decent profits, looking at exit at 8.25, but very satisfied with 8.20 trade.

STI was wobbly today, in the sense I was expecting a huge down swing, but investors held their nerves.

Cutting Loss at 8.05 cos if the bottom falls over, this one next stop down until 7.50. Loss i can't bear to take :)

Let's see what is going on on Monday!

HELP! make my blog your blog today!

2007-05-11T15:31:00.000+08:00

I've started this blog with the sole intention of everyone contributing ideas, and publishing good articles on investing, stock picking, or any matter related to investments.

As such, I'd like to propose a PICKSMART articles campaign! contributed by you readers or any other members of the online community.

You can publish articles by sending it to picksmart@gmail.com pls ensure you put in your Name/Nickname so we can glorify and adore you!!!

Or if you already are an avid blogger and would like to share articles that you've posted, please Link me! and send me an email ok? I will add you to my blogroll and feature your articles on picksmart as well!

Let's build this online community to every retail investor out there!

28000 Lotstraded for SSH and counting

2007-05-11T15:22:00.000+08:00

Huge volume... something's really odd, only news I could pick was they recently changed the board of directors. Nothing special there, but earnings are due this mth or next, so I wouldn't be surprised if there are further price action.

Up to a high of 31.5 cents today before sliding back down again.

Riding Down the STI Train

2007-05-11T08:12:00.000+08:00

Every morning as I prepare take the mrt to work, I sometimes get a feel the ride is not so smoothe. It's bumpy, the train stops halfway in the tunnel cos there's another train in front, or I'm just very tired and can't find seats.

Well today will be one of those days. If the STI holds out, it would show a lot of resilience, but I doubt it. This beast is too correlated to US markets. So hold onto anything you can, and get ready to ride out the STI train!

Bargains to look for:

1. Capitaland if it drops to 8.05-8 is a sure bargain

2. SSH cheong yesterday if retrace today pick up some

3. Japan Land my favourite closed at 9 cents yesterday, still a good buy, better at 8.5 cents!

DJIA Morning Buzz - 11 May

2007-05-11T00:01:00.000+08:00

Dow Retreats on Weak Sales Data:

Exerpt

Stocks Decline After Disappointing Retail Reports, Widening Trade Deficit
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks retreated Thursday after many of the nation's major retailers reported weak April sales, heightening concerns about consumer spending in the coming months...

...In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 74.36, or 0.56 percent, to 13,288.51. Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 9.61, or 0.64 ercent, to 1,502.97, and the Nasdaq composite index dipped 20.39, or 0.79 percent, to 2,555.95.

Think the market is waking up from its bearish slumber, we are due a correction, just hang in there and hold onto really good value stocks and ride the market.

Not invested in the market yet? Good for ya, hang in there, you'll find the right bargains if you know where to look.

SSH Corporation

2007-05-10T23:20:00.000+08:00

In my throwing darts post, I noted SSH which is one of my current holdings ( i bought in at 30 cents way back in Feb or something like that).

Noted it was range bound:

Range bound at 26 cents to 27.5 cents, looking to trade it at 26 cents to ride any upward move from there, sell off at resistence, and make a decent 1/1.5 cents before the lead up to earnings (2nd half of FY07)

Today saw a run up from 26.5 cents to 30.5 cents close, I'm quite happy at this run, pre earnings again. Gives a feel good around this.

Very clear resistance at 30 cents, in fact all time chart shows a typical retracement from after breaching the 30 cents barrier. This sharp spike up is pretty unusual for a stock that has been drifting sideways for (at least to me) an eternity. Very positive move, must be backed up by a consecutive spike upwards to give enough momentum leading up to earnings season. I like this stock, always have been a fan. Looking good for me, fingers crossed, we are ready to rawk!

End of Trading Day

2007-05-10T22:47:00.000+08:00

Pine AgriTech Ended the session flat from the price I bought in. But earnings released with 115% increase and very positive vibes coming from management. So I'm not disheartened.

Report can be found here:
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/560dd4b031b97d27482571b20043d38c/11ed354a825919f8482572d70018dc77?OpenDocument

Summary of Earnings Report:

PINE AGRITECH 1Q07 NET PROFIT SOARS
115% TO RMB146.5M

Gross profit margin rose to 47.7% from 40.3%

In 1Q07, Group revenue rose by 81.2% to RMB405.4 million from
RMB223.7 million in 1Q06. Boosted by capacity expansions in the second
half of FY06 and growing demand, both the Group’s core products...

The Group’s new soybean peptide plant with capacity of 10,000 tons per
annum is expected to be ready in June FY2007. When completed, it will be
one of the largest soybean peptide plants in the PRC.

Pine’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr Li Zhuping said, “I am pleased to see that
we started the year on a strong footing with robust sales for both our core
products. Our balance sheet remains strong as we generated RMB364.8
million of net cash from operations with zero net gearing. More importantly,
Group gross profit margin has improved significantly to 47.7% in 1Q07 from
40.3% in 1Q06 due to positive shift in product mix to higher margin SOS
and greater economies of scale. SOS profit margin was much higher than
SPI and it accounted for about 70% of Group gross profit in 1Q07, up from
about 47% in 1Q06.”

Don't understand why the stock was languishing in 98-99 range whole day... I'm sticking my neck out and going long, good stock to have for the week ahead at least :)

Become a Millionaire on $20 a Day

2007-05-10T07:41:00.000+08:00

by Chuck SalettaTuesday, May 1, 2007provided by http://www.fool.com

Be a millionaire in 26 years just by investing 20 bucks a day!!! Sounds pretty decent advice to me.

Exerpt:
Ten-year Treasury notes recently offered a 4.74 percent yield. Investing your daily $20 in those bonds instead of your mattress would get you to millionaire status in a bit under 43 years. Not bad.
Agree to take on a bit more volatility, though, and you can position yourself to do even better than that. Over the long haul, the stock market has historically returned an average of approximately 10 to 11 percent annually.
If that keeps up, investing in a low-cost market index tracker like Fidelity Spartan 500 Index will get you to a million in roughly 26 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/102982/become-a-millionaire-on-$20-a-day

FED Expected to keep rates steady

2007-05-09T21:22:00.000+08:00

The dow is slightly in negative territory at the market open, just dancing around the 13,300 mark. Today we are expecting FED to keep rates steady. Some good news from everything so far is that data is pointing to a soft landing, so if the FED cuts rates at the end of the year, I'm confident of the bull rally extending further into early next year.

Trouble is we can't keep a lid on inflation. That's to look out for.

STI Tmrw:

Today's move was unexpectedly resilient, a late afternoon reversal. Think the trend will pan out to be sideways till friday. But you never can be sure. I'm not confident of loading up trades going into ths market, would like to see it come off a little before going in.

But happy to long my PineAgriTech and accumulate on Japan Land. Quite excited really, tmrw Pine baby is releasing earnings, will exit if it stays at 73 cents target price, but once again I stress STOP LOSS @ 65

Also interested in accumulating on China Sun, but at reasonable levels. I'm a poor bloke and can only afford to pay 55-57 cents for this counter!!! So let's wait and see.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070509/fed_interest_rates.html?.v=7

Exerpt:

"Fed officials must feel they are in a pretty good place," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Growth has slowed and underlying inflation appears to be moderating, just according to their script."
Because the scenario for a soft landing for the economy appears to be unfolding, analysts said the Fed won't see any need to make changes. That will be a disappointment for those in financial markets, who have been hoping that the Fed will respond to the slowing economy by starting to cut rates....

...David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said he expected the jobless rate to peak out at 5 percent by the end of this year.
"By the end of the year, the Fed may see enough evidence of economic slowness along with lower inflation to convince them that they can start cutting rates," Wyss said.
David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, said he was looking for at the most two rate cuts in the fall but stressed that "the timing and frequency of any rate cuts will depend critically on incoming information about the economy."

Options Trading in Asia

2007-05-09T17:44:00.000+08:00

My friend clicked on the google ad just out of curiousity cos I don't like my readers clicking on spam sites so i asked him to check out the advertisements.

Click this link if you wanna check it out, I swear I'm not paid if you click it. But u can click on GOOGLE Ads too! if you enjoyed reading my blog and like to support us bloggers :) it's usually on the right -->
http://www.freely.com

They seem to have pretty good seminars, and I think it's a really good opportunity to sign up for them, at least sign up for the freebies first.

Options are beasts that needs to be tamed. So many warrants on STI, which is good? How to price? How to trade?

NEW TRADE IDEA - Capital Land!!!

2007-05-09T10:58:00.000+08:00

The Gem of Singapore:

Recent run up looks to be losing steam XDividend. So price has come down quite a bit given also recent market sentiments, strong suport to be found at the 8 dollar range.

This is a pricey stock, but a good one to hold at $8 bucks. Today went down to a low of 8.05 but market has rebounded towards noon, and price looks to hold near 8.20. Look to buy in on drops.

Good range trade from 8.10/8.05 to 8.50. As the market drifts, hold short term positions and you are more reactive.

Stop loss at 7.80.

Pick Smart Welcomes Toptrader to Blog Roll

2007-05-09T09:44:00.000+08:00

Hi all, strongly recommend you visit toptrader's blog on the link list to my right. With updated day trades that he makes, and particularly interesting is his techinical analysis using elliot waves.

http://toptrader.blogspot.com/search/label/Elliot%20Wave%20Analysis

Do give us bloggers a chance to provide you more information, just read our blogs, we crave your attention! hehe

Notice the ad on singapore shares forum on the RIGHT? If you did, I found it pretty interesting, seems like a new forum, go check it out by clicking google ads.

or you can click this link also la:

http://www.singaporesharesforum.com

Dow Down 0.5% at Beginning of Trading Session

2007-05-08T22:02:00.000+08:00

Down south after a long run-up that everyone really was predicting to lose steam sooner or later. Even more so heading into the FED meeting on rate hikes.

Consensus views rates to be unchanged over this meeting at least, more importantly I'd like to really understand how they view inflation, as I am quite uncertain about Bernanke's policies. Feels he's too rigid in trying to target a specific range for inflation. If he doesn't get it right and growth is affected in the US, it could be felt globally.

On another note, think this also isn't very encouraging for local investors back in Sg, think we have to brace ourselves for a 3rd consecutive decline.

Thinking about Shorting the STI on a Soc Gen put warrant strike at 3450 STI, but it's way too pricey for me right now. It's 71 cents, and intrinsic value is a mere 3.6 cents i.e. break even currently at 3237 by end of aug.

Doesn't look too attractive at all at the moment, but you never know

Currently in the money but not by a lot...

Pine AgriTech Ltd - bought 69 cents

2007-05-08T16:22:00.000+08:00

Couldn't stand the queue at 68.5 it was massive, as we head into really drifty times, think this is the only bright spark approaching end of week, staying vested only short term, as I don't like to hold due to limited cash and turbulent markets.

Japan land still in queue, tempted to go in at 9.5 cents, but prefer to wait and see. Already vested in Nucleus at 14 cents, but this is slow moving, think i can just range trade this baby at 13.5 cents and sell at 14 cents for the whole month :) but first I'm still waiting to see if I can finally exit at 14.5 cents to clear this position out.

wondering why i'm haggling over 1/2 a cent? cos the market ain't doing much with this counter at the moment, and i also need cash, looking at frontline to go in after i clear out some more positions.

it's troublesome being a retail investor, envious of them tycoons now...

Picksmart Celebrates its 1st Mileston 100 viewers in Mid Day!

2007-05-08T14:17:00.000+08:00

Thank you sincerely for supporting and reading this blog, although I've barely started, your viewership has meant a lot, and it shows that you find what I write useful. So a warm thank you for all you viewers, and please support our sponsors by viewing the ads

I feel more motivated despite this today's boring market to write more informative and useful posts. Please feel free to post your comments and suggestions. Thank you!

Market Sentiment Turns Bearish - Mid Morning Highlight

2007-05-08T10:21:00.000+08:00

Mid Morning

3 mth chart shows some mixed signals on whether toppish at 3,500 level, RSI doesn't show severely overbought, charts looking good with a persistent uptrend, but it feels a little toppish recently, without much momentum going into the markets, nothing really good feeding the frenzy.

We are extending into our 2nd day of STI trading in negative territory. Day sparkled early with a slight increase before the bears took over the show. Seems at least short term can find some support in the 3,400 level. Proceed with caution approaching this week, think we need to clear out some of those overbought positions, fear in china measures to cool off economy is also a concern not only for china plays.

Market to be a choppy ride, but hold on to your horses, get good stocks, and upside on earnings could sway market sentiments anyway.

On the picksmart queue list:

buy Japan Land @8.5 cents

buy PineAgritech @68.5 cents

buy Ariane @ 9 cents (speculative)

Orders for tmrw + DJIA passes 13,300!

2007-05-08T01:41:00.000+08:00

Chart on mid day session passing 13,300, crucial to hold this level, like STI today came off the 3,500 mark, dissappointing...

I'm going to enter my trades for tomorrow. Simple trades that were not filled today.

Pine Agritech - queue at 68.5 cents

Nucleus - queue to sell at 14.5 cents

Japan land - queue to buy at 8 cents

Looking for fresh new trade ideas, but usually when dow is up, sti is up, looking for a bright start tmrw.

Momentum is fading, pretty worried it cannot carry pass this 3,500. But buy on dips i suppose.

Pine AgriTech Ltd

2007-05-07T10:27:00.000+08:00

Breakout before Earnings Release!!!

RSI may look overbought, given recent run up through the CD date, but this baby looks set to rise further before earnings, as noted by Gallen, in his blog update Click -->http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com This stock is fundamentally strong, and continues to shine.

We are hovering near short term resistence at 68, 68.5 cents and can go both ways at the moment, but a reasonable bet on earnings which has been good, to remain good is high - this stock has been a GEM since it's IPO!

Already a lot of publicity about upcoming release on the internet blogs and forums, reactions have been good.

I'm long this, just entered a trade queue at 68 cents.

Monday picks to chase those blues away~

UPDATE!!!

Broker's research with PineAgriTech in it on 8 May 07

http://www.remisiers.org/research//8%20May.pdf

Japan Land - Ahead of FY2007 Results

2007-05-06T13:58:00.000+08:00

INITIAL recommendation - Buy
Initiated Price - 9 cents

This is the stock in my investment criteria - penny stocks less than a dollar, that I can find, that is linked to the Japanese economy, which after 13/14 years of economic slump has shown a signs of a recovery.

Company invests mainly in the Japanese property sector and has been consistently profitable. 1H 2007 reported strong contribution from Katsumi Housing Corporation a subsidiary of the company, which primarily deals in Japanese property. Otherwise, contributions from other associate companies and increased operating expenses dragged down company earnings vis-a-vis 1H2006.

Land prices in Japan has strenghtened as reported by Bloomberg. It was difficult trying to obtain information about the company, but I'm trying my best. Think one reason for this stock being dampened is the lack of analyst coverage on the SGX website, and certainly for many brokerages as well.

Exerpt from Bloomberg Report:

"Gains in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya compensated for a drop in regional areas. Average commercial land prices in the three cities rose 8.9 percent and residential 2.8 percent in the year ending Dec. 31, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said in report released today.
``Japan is becoming a country of cities, and those companies leveraged to urban real estate will do best,'' said Eric Starr, a Japanese stock portfolio manager at Connecticut-based Forest Investment Management LLC, which manages about $820 million in assets. ``I see real estate as a multi-year trade in Japan.''
Land values are still recovering from the collapse of an asset bubble at the start of the 1990s and the ensuing decade of declines. Overseas investors continue to pour money into Japanese real estate, attracted by low interest rates, economic growth and new securitization deals. The investment rush has sparked fears that a new land bubble may emerge in certain areas.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a5e_7OF8JvM8&refer=japan

Construction increase for dwelling units in Japan as released by Japan Stat board. And this is reflected in their 1h2007 results as well.

http://www.stat.go.jp/data/getujidb/zuhyou/m04.xls

However, a note of caution as the Bank of Japan turns towards trying to raise interest rates. They certainly would need some buffer from the next economic slump, I doubt they enjoy cutting rates back to negative territory. It may have negative effects on the housing loans, that are used to finance these purchases.

Share price has enjoyed a mini rejuvenation of spirits rising from a low of 7 cents , where i think is decent support level, hoping to buy in at dips and accumulate within range 8 to 9 cents.

STOP LOSS @ 7 cents Target Price @ >11 Cents

EPS 0.70 cents for FYE 2006, extracted from Annual Report 2006. PE 12.85 x trailing on 06 results. Which is doesn't show bubbly multiples, 1H 2007 however displayed some weakness in other associates, but management expects to remain profitable for the rest of the FYE. How much profits is crucial, but i see reasonable valuations, and good earnings prospects for 2007, at least better than stocks that are already running high on valuations but not earning much (like most pennies out there).

RSI toppish at the recent run-up, but has gone down to decent levels once again. Good play for unnoticed company heading into earnings, a bet on strong earnings to surprise the market. Look out for breakthrough against the 10.5 cents peak from previous run-up, if it shoots above that, I'm long the share for good!

Disclaimer:

These are my own opinions, and investors are encouraged to review the sources and form their own opinions and trading ideas. Cheers!

National Dart Throwing Competition!

2007-05-02T23:02:00.000+08:00

Close your eyes, get a good feel, dart in hand, take aim, and throw...

the art of picking penny stocks in a market frenzy.

These are glorious days for the retail investor, as everyone rushes in to reap a decent profit from the penny stocks. My darts are flung at small unnoticeable counters Nucleus and SSH corp, both of which are trading at low volumes but have a reasonable chance of improved earnings.

I've been trying hard to find affordable stocks for myself, less than 30 cents a share, and making decent profits. Taking a closer look into penny stocks, I just can't find a reason why these counters can move so rapidly without any real fundamental growth. My challenge to myself and indeed to everyone else is to choose at least a profitable stock, well-managed, overlooked, but has potential to turn the corner.

Nucleus - a recent run up has ended with the share sliding back down now consolidating at around 14 to 13.5 cents, with directors recently purchasing shares at 14.5 / 15 cents. This alerted me to a chance to sniff around for a bargain. Net loss for this electronics components distributor was fully diluted at (USD1.50) cents per share, which turned me off, initially. However, I came to realise that this was a result of an impairment loss on goodwill amounting to USD5.7mio. The company however is facing testing times with inventory pile ups. Also very dependent on the performance of the semiconductor industry. (source FY2006 YE annual report)

Company looking to diversify into more profitable income streams and products with better margins, and if we exclude the one-off impairment loss, Nucleus would have ended up with a decent profit. The company is also confident that consumer electronics and demand in the industry will pick up.

At a NAV of 10.39 USD cents per share, the share is currently trading below NAV, at 13.5 cents (SGD, yes it does get confusing for me as well).

Hoping to be well positioned for improved business climate for Nucleus, and looking to enter in more positions at 13.5 cents and 14 cents. Accumulate but STOP LOSS at 12.5 cents, as you never know the bottom may just fall over under you!

SSH - Good company, strong fundamentals, feels like it's largely overlooked. How do I tell? Just a hunch, but when markets are these goods and your trading volume is thin, it makes a lot of sense eh? Well in not so efficient markets like asian ones, I'm quite comfortable taking on this position.

Range bound at 26 cents to 27.5 cents, looking to trade it at 26 cents to ride any upward move from there, sell off at resistence, and make a decent 1/1.5 cents before the lead up to earnings (2nd half of FY07)

Long term wise, I'm looking to range trade buying in and if there are signs of breaking off from resistence, looking to hold longer towards the earnings release, because I feel there's some good news brewing in this company.

UOB Kay Hian in it's research report published in mid Jan, predicts stronger 2nd half performance, with continued growth in profitability. This company is stable, profitable, and growing, I can't resist the temptation of treating it as the darling of my portfolio.

By the way the report is available on SGX, and target price was at 36 cents. That's a decent upside in my opinion and a less risky proposition.

Have fun and make merry on your investment profits!

An article on the global market bubble

2007-05-01T21:09:00.000+08:00

Read a very interesting article on a global bubble forming, which is really interesting an somewhat negative? Just a note of caution for those over bullish speculators out there as we asian "punters" are reknown for: before you lay your stakes, make sure you have enough money in your sock to take a cab home just in case ok?

I still think that in Asia, it's very difficult to be convinced to get out of the stock market especially when everyone's in it, and doing well, until there are more compelling signals, I would still rather be in it than out of it.

Here's the link:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/070427/10353243.html?.v=7

but please bear in mind, in a nutshell, the article points out at two things to look out for, danger signs... in Malay it's AWAS! so please, do take note.

1. Prolonged inflation in the US - how does this affect the economy? Simple reason is that if the FED remains hawkish and does not lower rates, US economy may just hit the brakes.

2. Earnings growth - the article mentions tighter profit margins for corporations. Well the one reason in my opinion why the market is doing well despite countless nay-sayers is that corporations kept beating the streets with double digit earnings growth. However, we always have to question whether these are or are not sustainable prolonged earnings growth.

By the way, why are we so preoccupied with the US economy? I'd say that because Asia is heavily reliant on exports and foreign investment, any squeeze in the US economy will likewise affect Asian economies. I'd like very much to conduct a study on the correlations of US stock markets to Asian bourses, once done, I'd put it up for everyone to comment on, but till then, my gut feel is that STI seems to be strongly correlated to the US markets, any comments?

Good article to read, will try to add more content to make this site more worth the read.

Stock Pick China Sun Biochem Tech!

2007-05-01T10:52:00.000+08:00

Exciting prospects given their nature of business. I've been a fan of alternative energy and at the moment the most likely successor to dethrone petrol, is fuel cells, fuelled by ethanol, and biodiesel. China Sun's business is thus very much a long term play that I believe will prove to be very rewarding. Group has highlighted ethanol production as one of the key areas of focus.

Acquisition of corn starch plant also shows signs that the company is expanding, and CLSA researh report (available on the SGX website) target price is at 1.02. Think the price range hovering around 66 cents can be a good entry point, but I haven't concluded at what price I should go in.

Not to worry, stock has been trending, we can still afford to wait awhile and make a decision if anyone's interested.

About Picksmart

2007-04-29T23:54:00.000+08:00

The idea of Picksmart came about because I am an average retail investor, looking for like minded investors, who are keenly interested in financial markets and would like to build a community of knowledgeable investors in Asia.

I am thus looking to create a blog for all interested parties to write and post articles on any topic related to investing in the hope of sharing ideas, information and knowledge amongst Asian investors.